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This version published online on October 24, 2006
Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, doi:10.1210/jc.2006-1375
A more recent version of this article appeared on January 1, 2007
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*Compound via MeSH
*Substance via MeSH
Hazardous Substances DB
*TESTOSTERONE

Submitted on June 27, 2006
Accepted on September 25, 2006

A population-level decline in serum testosterone levels in American men

Thomas G Travison*, Andre B Araujo, Amy B O'Donnell, Varant Kupelian, and John B McKinlay

New England Research Institutes, Watertown, MA, USA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: ttravison{at}neriscience.com.

Context. Age-specific estimates of mean testosterone (T) concentrations appear to vary by year of observation and by birth cohort, and estimates of longitudinal declines in T typically outstrip cross-sectional decreases. These observations motivate a hypothesis of a population-level decrease in T over calendar time, independent of chronologic aging.

Objective. To establish the magnitude of population-level changes in serum T concentrations, and the degree to which they are explained by secular changes in relative weight and other factors.

Design. A prospective cohort study of health and endocrine functioning in randomly selected men of age 45-79 y. Three data collection waves: baseline (T1: 1987-89) and two follow-ups (T2: 1995-97, T3: 2002-04).

Setting. An observational study of randomly selected men residing in greater Boston, MA, USA.

Participants. Data obtained on 1374, 906 and 489 men at T1, T2, and T3, respectively, totaling 2769 observations taken on 1532 men.

Main outcome measures. Serum total testosterone and calculated bioavailable testosterone.

Results. We observe a substantial age-independent decline in T that does not appear to be attributable to observed changes in explanatory factors, including health and lifestyle characteristics such as smoking and obesity. The estimated population-level declines are greater in magnitude than the cross-sectional declines in T typically associated with age.

Conclusions. These results indicate that recent years have seen a substantial, and as yet unrecognized, age-independent population-level decrease in T in American men, potentially due to birth cohort differences or to health or environmental effects not captured in observed data.




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