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This version published online on May 30, 2006
Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, doi:10.1210/jc.2006-0594
A more recent version of this article appeared on August 1, 2006
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Submitted on March 16, 2006
Accepted on May 18, 2006

Body Mass Index, Metabolic Syndrome and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease

James B. Meigs MD, MPH*, Peter W. F. Wilson MD, Caroline S. Fox MD, MPH, Ramachandran S. Vasan MD, David M. Nathan MD, Lisa Sullivan PhD, and Ralph B. D’Agostino PhD

General Medicine Division and Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.; Dept. of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Medical Genetics, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC.; The NHLBI’s Framingham Heart Study and the Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Hypertension, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA; The NHLBI’s Framingham Heart Study and the Evans Department of Medicine, Whitaker Cardiovascular Institute, and Preventive Medicine Section, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA.; Diabetes Unit and Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.; Dept. of Mathematics, Statistics, and Consulting Unit, Boston University, Boston, MA

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: jmeigs{at}partners.org.

Context: Metabolic risk conferred by adiposity may be due to associated risk factor clustering.

Objective: To assess risk for diabetes or cardiovascular disease (CVD) stratified by body mass index (BMI) and the presence or absence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) or insulin resistance (IR).

Design, Setting, and Participants: A community-based, longitudinal study of 2902 people (55% women, mean age 53 yr) without diabetes or CVD in 1989-1992 followed for up to 11 yr. We categorized subjects by normal weight (BMI<25 kg/m2), overweight, (25-<30) or obese (>=30) and by ATP3 MetS or the top quartile of homeostasis model IR. We used proportional hazards models to estimate risk relative to normal weight and no MetS or IR.

Main Outcome Measure: Incident type 2 diabetes (treatment or fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/l, 141 events) or CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, or claudication, 252 events).

Results: Among 1056 normal weight subjects 7% had MetS and a risk factor-adjusted relative risk for diabetes of 3.97 (95% confidence interval 1.35-11.6) and for CVD of 3.01 (1.68-5.41). Among 638 obese subjects 37% did not have MetS or significantly increased risk. Obese subjects with MetS had an adjusted relative risk for diabetes of 10.3 (5.44-19.5) and for CVD of 2.13 (1.43-3.18). Results were similar in analyses of BMI-IR categories.

Conclusions: People with normal weight and MetS or IR or with obesity but no MetS or IR were not uncommon in our sample. Risk factor clustering or IR appear to confer much of the risk for diabetes or CVD commonly associated with elevated BMI.


Key words: type 2 diabetes • cardiovascular disease • obesity • metabolic syndrome • insulin resistance • epidemiology • risk factors




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