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Programs in Epidemiology (T.E.H., S.D., L.O.) and Cancer Prevention (K.J.K.), Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism (T.E.H.), University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington 98195; and Departments of Epidemiology (S.D.) and Biostatistics (K.J.K.), University of Washington School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Seattle, Washington 98195
Address all correspondence and requests for reprints to: Thomas Hamilton, M.D., Ph.D., Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue N, M4-A830, P.O. Box 19024, Seattle, Washington 98109-1024. E-mail: tehamilton{at}aol.com.
| Abstract |
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Objective: We report an analysis of TSH distribution in a population with no evidence of thyroid disease, including a normal thyroid ultrasound.
Design: A subset of the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study cohort was used to examine the TSH distribution in a population having no evidence of thyroid disease, seronegative thyroid autoantibodies, no history of thyroid medications, and a normal thyroid ultrasound. The shape of the TSH distribution was compared with the Gaussian and lognormal distributions.
Setting: This study was performed in the general community.
Participants: Of 1861 Hanford Thyroid Disease Study participants with TSH measured by ELISA who also had thyroid peroxidase antibody measurements, 766 comprised the normal reference group 3 (NRG-3) with no evidence of thyroid disease, including no positive antibodies and normal thyroid ultrasound.
Main Outcome Measure: TSH was measured.
Results: The TSH distribution in the NRG (NRG-3) was right skewed and followed an approximate lognormal distribution. The best estimates of the 97.5th percentile, the percentage above 2.5 µIU/ml, and the percentage above 3.0 µIU/ml for TSH by 3rd generation immunochemiluminometric assay are 4.1 µIU/ml, 20% and 10.2%, respectively.
Conclusion: These results indicate that the TSH reference range should be narrowed and support a value of approximately 4.0 as the upper-reference limit.
| Introduction |
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In practice the TSH distribution has been found to be right skewed. Therefore, reference limits have been determined by log transforming the TSH values, calculating the mean ± 2 SD values, and then exponentiating to obtain the reference limits on the original scale (8). This approach will provide accurate reference limits if normal TSH values follow the lognormal distribution. Recently, it has been asserted that if a reference population is carefully chosen to represent a population without evidence of thyroid disease (excluding those with personal or family histories of thyroid disease, those on medications that affect TSH, and those with abnormal thyroid examinations or positive thyroid autoantibodies), then TSH values drawn in the morning should follow a Gaussian rather than lognormal distribution, with lower and upper-reference limits 0.4 and 2.5 µIU/ml (3, 8). It has been stated that "greater than 95% of healthy euthyroid subjects have a serum TSH concentration <2.5 µIU/ml" (8).
We capitalized on an opportunity to evaluate the distribution of TSH values in an unselected general population that was intensively screened for the presence of thyroid disease, including the use of thyroid ultrasonography, and focused on the subset that excluded those with thyroid disease and thyroid ultrasound abnormalities. This is the first such study of thyroid function in an iodine-sufficient population with well-documented evidence of the absence of thyroid disease, including a normal thyroid ultrasound. We evaluated the distribution of TSH values in this population, and the results provide an empirical basis for recommending alternative upper-reference limits for TSH.
| Subjects and Methods |
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Serum samples were obtained from 3431 (99.7%) individuals, and tested for TSH, free T4 index, and thyroid antibodies. The methods used to measure TSH and thyroid antibodies changed over the course of the HTDS, and this study is restricted to the 1861 with TSH measured by ELISA (Abbott IMX; reference range 0.32–5.01, sensitivity < 0.04; Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, IL) who had thyroid antibodies based on thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs) (Nichols Institute, San Juan Capistrano, CA). Thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAbs) were subsequently measured on frozen samples after the end of the clinical evaluation phase of the study (Dr. Carole Spencer, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA). Positive TPOAbs and TgAbs were defined as more than 2.0 IU/ml and more than 1.0 IU/ml, respectively.
Serum samples were typically drawn between 0755 and 1800 h, with half drawn before 1200 h, and only eight persons drawn between 1800 and 2010 h. Each participant underwent independent thyroid examinations by two thyroidologists and a thyroid ultrasound scan by a certified ultrasonographer (7.5 MHz; Hitachi EUB-310; Tokyo, Japan). Ultrasound prints and videotapes were subsequently reviewed by radiologists for interpretation of thyroid ultrasound abnormalities. The criteria for a normal thyroid ultrasound included the following: 1) a homogeneous echogenic pattern throughout the gland, 2) absence of any focal ultrasound nodules, and 3) absence of diffuse or heterogeneous abnormalities. If the pattern was homogeneous, it was not further classified as hypoechoic, isoechoic, or hyperechoic. Criteria for a normal thyroid ultrasound did not include volume measurements. Color Doppler was not available.
Medical records were requested and reviewed for any participant with suspected preexisting thyroid disease. Individuals with abnormal laboratory function, thyroid examination, or thyroid ultrasound results from the HTDS evaluation were sent letters advising them to seek medical evaluation by their personal physician, and all subsequent medical records related to these recommendations were requested.
All procedures and data collection instruments were approved by the Institutional Review Board at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, and all study participants provided written informed consent to participate in the study in accordance with institutional and federal requirements.
Three subsets of the cohort were defined as normal reference groups (NRGs), based on the degree to which individuals were free of evidence of thyroid disease. NRG-1 (n = 1448) was composed of those having no evidence of thyroid disease, including no prior history of documented thyroid disease, a normal thyroid physical examination, and no history of taking thyroid hormone. NRG-1 excluded anyone with hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, palpable thyroid nodules, or ultrasound abnormalities in the presence of palpable nodules, as well as those taking lithium in the 30 d before the evaluation, Dilantin (Parke-Davis, Pfizer Inc., New York, NY), Tegretol (Novartis, Basel, Switzerland), or glucocorticoids in the 60 d before the evaluation, and amiodarone in the 6 months before the evaluation. It did not exclude those with positive TPOAbs or TgAbs, or UDAs in the absence of any other thyroid disease. NRG-2 (n = 1186) further excluded those with a positive TPOAb and/or positive TgAb, and NRG-3 (n = 766) further excluded those with an abnormal thyroid ultrasound. Of the 766 persons in NRG-3, 97.4% were Caucasian. As reported in detail elsewhere (9, 10), no association was found between exposure to Hanford 131I and TSH level, or the cumulative incidence of any form of thyroid disease or ultrasound abnormality. Consequently, TSH levels in individuals from these three subsets of HTDS participants with increasingly strict definitions of the absence of thyroid disease are considered to represent a normal range in an unselected population.
Summary measures of the distribution of TSH were calculated (mean, SD, median, 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles, minimum, maximum), and the distribution was plotted for the entire cohort and by sex, for comparison to previously published studies. These same summary measures were calculated for each of the three NRGs and the distributions plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to test whether the prevalence of TPOAb seropositivity varied in relation to TSH values after excluding participants with Graves disease or on thyroid hormone. Distributions of TSH levels from blood drawn before vs. after 1200 h were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. In further analyses limited to NRG-3, the Shapiro-Wilk statistic (12) was used to test the goodness of fit of Gaussian and lognormal distributions for TSH values.
Because the HTDS TSH results were based on an ELISA that is no longer in use, it was important to determine whether an assay similar to those currently in use would yield comparable results. To investigate this we randomly selected a subset of 50 participants across the range of TSH values and in June 2007 used their previously frozen sera to: 1) determine if the frozen samples had degraded over time, using Abbott Laboratories IMX Ultrasensitive human TSH II assay (analytical sensitivity 0.02 µIU/ml; reference range 0.47–5.01 µIU/ml); and 2) compare the original HTDS ELISA TSH values with those from a currently used third-generation immunochemiluminometric assay (ICMA) ADVIA Centaur TSH-3 assay (Bayer Diagnostics, Bayer AG, Leverkusen, Germany; analytical sensitivity 0.004 µIU/ml; reference range 0.350–5.500 µIU/ml) (for additional details, see the supplemental appendix, which is published as supplemental data on The Endocrine Societys Journals Online web site at http://jcem.endojournals.org). Comparison of IMX to the original ELISA confirmed that TSH remained stable after storage at –70 C. ICMA values for NRG-3 were predicted from the ELISA values using the regression equation relating the 50 ICMA values to the ELISA values.
| Results |
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= 0.96), and the estimated regression equation relating the IMX and TSH values was not significantly different from IMX = ELISA (supplemental appendix). This was reassuring evidence that the TSH concentration in the stored frozen samples had remained stable over time. Similarly, there was a high degree of correlation between the original HTDS ELISA TSH values and those obtained by the ICMA (
= 0.97). On average, the ICMA values were 0.73 µIU/ml higher than the original ELISA values, with fitted regression equation ICMA = 0.16 + 1.16 x ELISA, implying that the 97.5th percentile ELISA value of 3.4 µIU/ml for NRG-3 would correspond to an ICMA value of 0.16 + 1.16 x 3.4 = 4.1 µIU/ml. Similarly, an ICMA value of 2.5 µIU/ml, which would correspond to an ELISA value of (2.5–0.16)/1.16 = 2.0 µIU/ml, was the 80th percentile for NRG-3. | Discussion |
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In assessing whether the upper-reference limit for TSH should be reduced to 2.5 µIU/ml, it is useful to determine what percentage of a population cohort without evidence for thyroid disease has a TSH value above 2.5 µIU/ml. For our NRG-3, the percentage of individuals with TSH (measured by ELISA) over 2.5 µIU/ml was 9.7%. However, from our regression analysis of the relationship between the ICMA and HTDS ELISA values, the proportion with ICMA TSH greater than 2.5 µIU/ml was estimated to be 20%. Thus, the proportion with TSH under 2.5 µIU/ml is estimated to be only 80%; this is significantly different from prior assertions that greater than 95% of euthyroid individuals have TSH levels less than 2.5 µIU/ml (3, 8). The proportion of NRG-3 with predicted ICMA values over 3.0 µIU/ml (corresponding to an ELISA value of 2.45 µIU/ml) was also substantial (10.2%), based on our regression analysis. These results are in close agreement with Surks et al. (2), suggesting that analysis of the NHANES III data show that approximately 15% of the reference group (those without known thyroid disease or antithyroid antibodies) have TSH levels above 2.5 µIU/ml. Consequently, lowering the upper-reference limit to 2.5 µIU/ml could result in a significant portion of individuals without evidence for thyroid disease being classified as having an elevated TSH and potentially trigger inappropriate treatment with thyroid hormone. This issue would not be relevant to pregnant women or women planning conception because recent guidelines have recommended that their TSH levels be less than 2.5 µIU/ml (18).
A recent reanalysis of NHANES III data by Spencer et al. (17) has suggested that the upper range skew in TSH may be related to occult thyroid dysfunction caused in part by including antibody negative individuals in cohorts otherwise believed to be free of thyroid disease. The authors further state that it is not possible to establish an accurate TSH upper limit from population studies. One could argue that the TSH upper limit should be somewhat arbitrary because there is not a consensus among endocrinologists whether treating individuals with thyroid hormone for TSH levels between 5 and 10 is warranted. However, endocrinologists make up a small fraction of the practicing physicians who make daily decisions regarding thyroid hormone treatment, and the decision to treat is often based in large part on whether the laboratory reports the TSH to be above or within their reference range. Our primary concern with decreasing the TSH upper limit to 2.5 µIU/mL (or even 3.0, as suggested by the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists) is that data from NHANES III and our study show that 10–20% of individuals without apparent thyroid disease have TSH levels above 2.5 µIU/mL. Because it is unlikely that all of these individuals have occult thyroid disease, we think a higher upper limit near 4.0 is less likely to result in inappropriate T4 therapy of euthyroid individuals.
Several guidelines regarding the diagnosis and treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism have been published (19, 20, 21). In addition, there has been much discussion about potential adverse consequences of changing the TSH reference range and the possible impact on individual therapy decisions (22, 23, 24), the most important of which include treating euthyroid individuals with thyroid hormone and withholding treatment from persons with subclinical hypothyroidism. Clearly, the TSH value alone is insufficient in making a diagnosis of subclinical hypothyroidism and deciding whether treatment with thyroid hormone is appropriate. It is essential that physicians consider many other patient-specific factors, including individual patient symptoms, repeat measurement of TSH to confirm it is elevated and does not represent transient elevation or recovery of subacute thyroiditis, and consideration of whether the person has seronegative autoimmune thyroiditis. An additional clinical factor is recognition of the well-established individual reference range for TSH, which is typically narrower than the population reference range (25). The mean TSH for a given patient may be in either the lower or upper TSH reference range. For example, a patient with a confirmed TSH of 3.6 µIU/ml may have early autoimmune thyroiditis with subclinical hypothyroidism and may benefit from T4 therapy. However, if the history, physical examination, thyroid ultrasound, and thyroid antibody testing are all normal, it is more likely that this TSH value is normal for that individual, and treatment with T4 would be inappropriate.
One potential limitation in this study is the use of an older TSH assay, which although considered acceptable when this study was conducted (1992–1997), has been replaced by third-generation ICMAs. Therefore, we assayed TSH in a randomly selected sample of 50 cryopreserved serum specimens from the original study, and analyzed the feasibility of predicting distributions of TSH measured by ICMA from the existing ELISA values. We demonstrated both that TSH was stable after cryopreservation and that TSH measured by ICMA was consistently higher than the original ELISA values.
There were several other potential limitations of this study. The first is the absence of information on family history of thyroid disease to use as a criterion for defining the reference population. However, all participants in NRG-3 had a normal ultrasound and negative TPOAbs and TgAbs when examined at age 45–57, so it is unlikely that any had a familial predisposition for autoimmune thyroiditis that had not yet been expressed. Second, TSH levels were not uniformly measured during morning hours, however, no significant difference was seen in the distribution when morning TSH values were compared with afternoon values. A third limitation is that we were not able to address ethnicity differences in the TSH distribution because 97.4% of NRG-3 was Caucasian. It is also of interest to note that excluding people with ultrasound abnormalities from our NRG-2 did not further change the TSH distribution in NRG-3. One explanation for this finding is that NRG-2 already excluded persons with indicators of thyroid disease: TPOAbs and TgAbs, palpable thyroid nodules, medications that affect TSH, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, and ultrasound abnormalities associated with these conditions.
The primary strength of this study is that the cohort was randomly selected from birth certificates, and there was no evidence of any substantial bias with regard to selection of the cohort, loss to follow-up, or enrollment and participation (9). In addition, there was nearly complete ascertainment of TSH (99.7%). Furthermore, it is the first study for which a normal thyroid ultrasound is a criterion for excluding thyroid disease in an iodine-sufficient population.
Summary
The results reported here support lowering the upper limit of the TSH reference range below the 4.5–5.0 µIU/ml range that is often reported by many clinical laboratories. However, even after adding normal ultrasonography as a criterion for defining the normal reference population, 20% of the HTDS participants without evidence of thyroid disease have a TSH greater than 2.5 µIU/ml, and 10.2% have a value greater than 3.0. Based on these results, and our concern that an upper limit of 2.5 may result in inappropriate therapy of euthyroid individuals, we recommend an upper limit near 4.0 µIU/ml for the TSH reference range. However, it is essential that patient-specific factors be considered along with a confirmed TSH level before deciding whether thyroid hormone replacement is indicated in an individual patient.
| Footnotes |
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Disclosure Summary: The authors have nothing to declare.
First Published Online January 29, 2008
Abbreviations: HTDS, Hanford Thyroid Disease Study; 131I, Iodine-131; ICMA, immunochemiluminometric assay; NHANES, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; NRG, normal reference group; TgAb, thyroglobulin antibody; TPOAb, thyroid peroxidase antibody; UDA, ultrasound-detected abnormality.
Received October 20, 2006.
Accepted January 18, 2008.
| References |
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