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Chair of Endocrinology, University of Milan, Ospedale San Luca, Istituto Auxologico Italiano Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico, I-20149 Milan, Italy
Address all correspondence and requests for reprints to: Professor Francesco Cavagnini, Chair of Endocrinology, University of Milan, Ospedale San Luca, via Spagnoletto 3, I-20149 Milan, Italy. E-mail: cavagnini{at}auxologico.it.
| Abstract |
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Objective: The aim of the study was the assessment of the specificity of three widely used screening tests in a large series of Cushings syndrome suspects referred to our endocrine service.
Patients: We retrospectively reviewed the results of urinary free cortisol (UFC), 1-mg dexamethasone suppression test [overnight suppression test (OST)], and serum cortisol at midnight in 3461, 357, and 864 patients, respectively, with clinical features suggestive of Cushings syndrome but in whom this diagnosis was subsequently excluded.
Results: UFC and OST at the 5-µg/dl cutoff exhibited the highest specificities [91% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 90.2–92.1%) and 97% (95% CI 96.3–98.5%), respectively]. Conversely, midnight serum cortisol yielded 87% (95% CI 84.3–91.1%) specificity only with the 7.5-µg/dl cutoff, whereas the 1.8-µg/dl threshold resulted in an unacceptably high proportion of false positives at only 20% specificity (95% CI 16.0–24.4%). Gender and age may lead to misleading results in all three screening tests.
Conclusions: Specificity of tests for Cushings syndrome varies considerably, with OST and UFC presenting the best performances, and circadian rhythm appearing heavily impaired by lowering of diagnostic cutoffs. Indeed, the vast majority of individuals in our series presented midnight serum cortisol values greater than 1.8 µg/dl; thus, caution has to be exercised when this criterion is used to exclude Cushings syndrome.
| Introduction |
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| Patients and Methods |
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Testing procedures included:
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Serum cortisol and UFC were measured by immunometric assay (Byk-Sangtec Diagnostica, Dietzenbach, Germany) and RIA after urine extraction with dichloromethane (Diagnostic Products Corp., Los Angeles, CA), respectively. Analytical sensitivity is 0.21 and 0.20 µg/dl for serum cortisol and UFC, respectively; functional sensitivity of both methods was 0.5 µg/dl. Intraassay and interassay coefficients of variation were 3.0 and 4.7% for serum cortisol and 3.5 and 6.2% for UFC, respectively. Normal ranges are 5–25 µg/dl (138–690 nmol/liter) for morning serum cortisol and 10–80 µg/24 h (28–220 nmol/24 h) for UFC. Urine collections in which creatinine concentration was outside the expected range (0.8–2 g/24 h) were excluded from analysis.
Criteria for data interpretation
The following cutoffs to exclude Cushings syndrome were used: less than 80 µg/24 h (220 nmol/24 h) for UFC; less than 1.8 µg/dl (50 nmol/liter), less than 5 µg/dl (138 nmol/liter), and less than 7.5 µg/dl (207 nmol/liter) for serum cortisol at midnight (13, 14, 15); and less than 1.8 µg/dl (50 nmol/liter), and less than 5 µg/dl (138 nmol/liter) for cortisol after OST (16, 17).
Statistical analysis
Statistical analysis was performed using StatView 4.5 (Abacus Concepts, Berkeley, CA) and GB-STAT (Dynamic Microsystems, Silver Spring, MD). Data were examined by the Students t or
2 test. Correlations between variables were established by linear regression analysis; logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of altered hormonal values. For age-specific analysis, frequency distribution across the entire age range was calculated, and patients were subdivided into six groups according to their percentile: up to 10th percentile, 18 yr and younger; 10th to 25th percentile, 19–27 yr; 25th to 50th percentile, 28–41 yr; 50th to 75th percentile, 42–56 yr; 75th to 90th percentile, 57–65 yr; and above 90th percentile, over 65 yr of age. ANOVA was used to analyze the difference in hormonal data across age-percentiles, and
2 statistic for 2 x k tables was used to assess differences in specificity per age group and test thresholds (18). Values are given as mean ± SEM, uncertainty quantified as 95% confidence intervals (CI) (19); P values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant.
| Results |
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A total of 6606 urine collections was obtained from 3461 patients. A single UFC collection was available in 1846 patients, two UFC collections in 508 patients, and three or more collections in 1107 patients. UFC concentrations were higher than the reference range in 688 collections, yielding 89.6% (95% CI 88.9–90.3%) specificity. Evaluation per patient, i.e. the median UFC value if more than one sample had been collected, revealed comparable specificity (91.2%; 95% CI 90.2–92.1%), with only 305 of 3461 patients presenting supernormal UFC concentrations (Fig. 3
). The percentage of supernormal UFC values did not vary in relation with the number of 24-h urine collections [9.9% (95% CI 8.3–11.3%), 8.2% (95% CI 6.5–9.95%), and 6.6% (95% CI 5.8–7.4%) for patients with one, two, or three or more UFC collections, respectively]. Specificity of outpatient collections was barely lower than inpatients [90.3% (95% CI 89.0–91.5%) and 92.5% (95% CI 91.1–93.9%); P < 0.05]. Men presented slightly but significantly higher UFC levels (49.7 ± 1.04 vs. 43.5 ± 0.59 µg/24 h; P < 0.001) and a greater prevalence of false positives than women (10.8 vs. 7.2%, P < 0.05). UFC concentrations were weakly and negatively correlated with age (r = –0.10; P < 0.001), and patients with supernormal UFC values were younger than those with normal values (38.5 ± 0.98 vs. 41.5 ± 0.31 yr; P < 0.01). Accordingly, specificity was progressively greater across the six age groups (
2 =14.2; P < 0.05; Fig. 6
). UFC concentrations presented a weak inverse relationship with BMI (r = –0.10; P < 0.05), and obese subjects (i.e. BMI > 30 kg/m2) presented lower UFC levels compared with nonobese subjects (40.9 ± 1.16 vs. 45.9 ± 2.18 µg/24 h; P < 0.05), thereby achieving slightly greater specificity compared with nonobese subjects (95.0 vs. 90.2% specificity for BMI > 30 and < 30 kg/m2, respectively; P < 0.05). At logistic regression analysis, gender and age proved significant predictors of supernormal UFC values (ß = 0.286 with 95% CI 0.005 and 0.529, P < 0.05 for gender; ß = –0.011 with 95% CI –0.004 and –0.018, P < 0.005 for age), whereas BMI failed to modify the significance of the regression model [ß = –0.0013 with 95% CI –0.0039 and 0.0013, nonsignificant (NS)]. Altogether, men were 1.3 times more likely to present abnormal UFC values than women, and the odds of abnormal UFC decreased by 10% every 10 yr in age.
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Serum cortisol at midnight was measured in 357 patients (286 females, 71 males) and ranged from 0.1–20.8 µg/dl (Fig. 4
). Specificity was very low with the 1.8 µg/dl cutoff (20.2%; 95% CI 16.0–24.4%) and increased with the higher thresholds [73.9% (95% CI 69.3–78.5%) for 5 µg/dl and 87.7% (95% CI 84.3–91.1%) for 7.5 µg/dl]. Midnight serum cortisol was positively correlated with age (r = 0.110; P < 0.05). Accordingly, patients exceeding the 1.8-µg/dl threshold were older than subjects with less than 1.8 µg/dl (45.3 ± 0.98 vs. 35.6 ± 1.62 yr; P < 0.01). The same was true using the 5-µg/dl cutoff (46.3 ± 1.75 vs. 42.2 ± 1.00 yr; P < 0.05), whereas the difference in age between less than 7.5 µg/dl and more than 7.5 µg/dl patients was less pronounced (45.9 ± 2.74 vs. 42.9 ± 0.91 yr; NS). Stratification according to age revealed a progressive increase in the percentage of false positives with the 1.8-µg/dl threshold (
2 = 25.6; P < 0.01; Fig. 6
), whereas no statistical significance could be detected with the higher cutoffs (both NS). At logistic regression analysis, age proved a significant determinant of cortisol values at midnight greater than 1.8 µg/dl (ß = 0.037 with 95% CI 0.020 and 0.054; P < 0.005), whereas the 5-µg/dl cutoff was barely significant (ß = 0.015 with 95% CI 0.001 and 0.0298; P < 0.05); age failed to predict abnormalities at the 7.5-µg/dl threshold (ß = 0.011 with 95% CI –0.008 and 0.030; NS). The odds of abnormal cortisol at midnight increased by 9% and by 12% every 10 yr in age for the 1.8 and 5-µg/dl cutoff, respectively. Conversely, midnight serum cortisol was not affected by gender or BMI (data not shown).
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Serum cortisol after OST ranged from 0.2–24.5 µg/dl (Fig. 5
). Of 864 patients (661 women, 203 men), 171 subjects failed to suppress cortisol levels less than 1.8 µg/dl, yielding 80.2% (95% CI 77.5–82.9%) specificity. Specificity increased to 97.4% (95% CI 96.3–98.5%) with the 5-µg/dl cutoff because only 22 patients exceeded this value. Age was again a misleading variable with nonsuppressors (1.8-µg/dl threshold) appearing older than suppressors (48.3 ± 1.30 vs. 42.5 ± 0.58 yr, for patients with > 1.8 and < 1.8 µg/dl cortisol after OST, respectively; P < 0.01) and, to a lesser extent, with the 5-µg/dl cutoff (49.4 ± 3.88 vs. 43.5 ± 0.54 yr, for patients with > 5 and < 5 µg/dl cortisol after OST, respectively; P = 0.08). Accordingly, cortisol after OST was positively correlated with age (r = 0.092; P < 0.01) and, as for midnight serum cortisol, stratification according to age revealed a trend toward age-related increase in false positives (
2 = 28.0, P < 0.01 for the 1.8-µg/dl cutoff;
2 = 5.6, NS for the 5-µg/dl threshold; Fig. 6
). Age proved a significant predictor of altered OST responses at logistic regression analysis for the 1.8-µg/dl threshold (ß = 0.024 with 95% CI 0.013 and 0.035; P < 0.0005); the coefficient was not significant at the 5-µg/dl cutoff (ß = 0.024 with 95% CI –0.004 and 0.051; NS). The odds of abnormal cortisol suppression after OST increased by 19% every 10 yr in age. No differences in specificity were observed between inpatients and outpatients, between men and women, and between obese and nonobese subjects (data not shown).
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Among patients who performed UFC and OST, specificity of UFC was 69.8% (95% CI 63.9–75.7%) and 65.5% (95% CI 59.4–71.6%) and 93.6% (95% CI 90.5–96.7%) for OST at the 1.8 and 5-µg/dl thresholds, respectively. Only two patients (0.8%; 95% CI 0–1.9%) presented abnormalities in both tests (UFC > 80 µg/24 h, OST > 5 µg/dl). Specificity of UFC was 70.1% (95% CI 65.2–75.0%) among subjects who performed UFC and cortisol at midnight, whereas specificity of the latter was 19.1% (95% CI 14.9–23.3%), 74.3% (95% CI 69.6–79.0%), and 88.0% (95% CI 84.5–91.5%) at the 1.8, 5, and 7.5-µg/dl thresholds, respectively. Four of 335 (1.2%, 95% CI 0–2.4%) patients who performed UFC and cortisol circadian rhythm presented midnight cortisol higher than 7.5 µg/dl and supernormal UFC concentrations. In patients submitted to all tests, none presented abnormal responses to all three; specificities were 69.9% (95% CI 60.3–79.5%) for UFC, 67.2% (95% CI 57.2–76.8) and 94.4% (95% CI 89.6–99.2%) for OST at the 1.8 and 5-µg/dl thresholds, and 15.7% (95% CI 8.1–23.3%), 56.8% (95% CI 46.5–67.1%), and 79.6% (95% CI 81.2–88.0%) for cortisol at midnight at the 1.8, 5, and 7.5-µg/dl cutoffs. In these patients, cortisol at midnight contributed to two and one false positive, in combination with UFC and OST, respectively. Conversely, no patient presented abnormal UFC and OST and normal circadian rhythm. These data suggest a spectrum of alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis in Cushings syndrome suspects, with some patients presenting greater derangement in cortisol secretion. These patients did not fit in any particular clinical phenotype, possibly a consequence of multiple ailments in the vast majority of Cushings syndrome suspects in our series.
Comparison of specificity of screening tests
The OST with the 5-µg/dl cutoff proved superior to all other screening tests (Fig. 7
), with UFC proving a close second. Cortisol at midnight using the highest threshold (7.5 µg/dl) presented near to superimposed specificity compared with UFC and was superior to OST with the 1.8-µg/dl cutoff but was the least specific test at the 1.8-µg/dl threshold.
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| Discussion |
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Given the aforementioned results, we evaluated the specificity of screening procedures in a large series of those patients who are most likely to be tested, e.g. individuals with truncal obesity, diabetes, hypertension, mood disorders, and irregular menses. Our study revealed that serum cortisol after 1 mg dexamethasone and UFC achieve superior diagnostic performance, whereas cortisol at midnight should be interpreted with caution. In detail, cortisol suppression by 1 mg dexamethasone yielded the highest diagnostic performance with the 5-µg/dl threshold at 97% specificity, whereas the lower 1.8-µg/dl cutoff resulted in less optimal 80% specificity. As for UFC, concentrations outside the normal range were detected in 10% of Cushings syndrome suspects. Not surprisingly, these specificities are somewhat less than the near to absolute value obtained using normal subjects as controls (9, 20, 21, 23, 24). The use of even lower thresholds has yielded unacceptable specificity, ranging from 18–73% for UFC (3, 4, 5, 25) and 41–68% for OST (3, 5). Among recent studies with the most numerous control groups (up to 130 Cushings syndrome suspects), 100% sensitivity with OST is reported at 1.2 µg/dl with 41% specificity (3) or at 3.4 µg/dl with 94% specificity (4). In these same series, 100% sensitivity with UFC was achieved with values above 55 µg/24 h and 25 µg/24 h, yielding obviously low specificities, i.e., 73 and 50%, respectively (3, 4). Of note, the upper limit of the normal range in the two aforementioned studies was 75 µg/24 h and 52.6 µg/24 h, the latter a high-performance liquid chromatography assay. The measurement of dexamethasone levels, an indicator of drug absorption, might clarify nonsuppressing pattern but does not appear practical for screening purposes. We recorded superimposed specificity with the increasing number of UFC collections; on the other hand, obtaining more than one UFC avoids the risk of false negatives and is recommended (1). Reference ranges for UFC differ according to assay and laboratories, and the 80 µg/24 h threshold reported in this study corresponds to the upper limit of the normal range in our assay. OST and UFC together yielded excellent specificity because only 0.8% of subjects presented abnormal responses to both tests.
Unlike the tests mentioned above, midnight serum cortisol yielded less satisfactory results. In fact, whereas less restrictive criteria (5 and 7.5 µg/dl) allowed the exclusion of Cushings syndrome with good, although not absolute, reliability (73.9 and 87.7%, respectively), the lowest diagnostic cutoff, i.e. 1.8 µg/dl, yielded an unacceptably high proportion of false positives (78.8%). Of note, only one fifth of non-Cushing individuals presented midnight cortisol serum concentrations less than 1.8 µg/dl, which might reflect the difficulty in fulfilling the strict requirements for midnight sampling. In the initial study reporting 100% sensitivity and specificity with the 1.8-µg/dl threshold and using healthy volunteers as controls, patients were sleeping at the time of sampling, and blood was taken from an indwelling venous catheter (15). The certainty of sleep might be difficult to achieve in everyday clinical practice, even if the protocol is adhered to as closely as possible as we endeavored to, and individual sleeping habits might interfere with cortisol nadir at midnight. Over time, none of the three proposed cutoffs maintained the initially reported 100% specificity that had been achieved in series comprising 10-fold more patients with Cushings syndrome than Cushings syndrome suspects (14), just opposite the usual clinical setting. Moreover, smaller series also had failed to confirm 100% specificity of either threshold (3, 5, 14, 26). Assessment of cortisol circadian rhythmicity in saliva rather than serum samples has been proposed as a cost-effective alternative (27, 28) but needs to be validated in large-scale studies.
One feature that has not been fully appreciated in previous studies is the influence of age, gender, and weight on the specificity of screening tests. Gender-related differences were observed for UFC, with male Cushings syndrome suspects presenting higher UFC levels than their female counterparts, in parallel to what was observed in normal subjects (29), hypertensives (30), and patients with Cushings disease (31). Because normal ranges for UFC are the same for both sexes, this leads to a greater prevalence of false positives in male than female Cushings syndrome suspects. Age is also known to affect hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis activity, most notably nocturnal nadir values (32, 33) and sensitivity to glucocorticoid feedback (34, 35). Accordingly, subjects with absent cortisol circadian rhythm or who failed to suppress after dexamethasone were older than those with normal test responses. Conversely, false positives for UFC were less frequent among the older age percentiles. It is worth underlining that the differing ages of patients with abnormal or normal screening tests spanned the third and fourth decade of life, i.e. the age range most commonly affected by Cushings syndrome. Finally, cortisol secretion and obesity are known to be interlinked in a complex relationship (36), and weight excess might influence the specificity of screening tests. All three tests proved reliable across the entire weight range, with UFC even yielding somewhat higher specificity in obese subjects. Indeed, this finding tallies with lower UFC values in obese subjects (37).
Our study focused on the likelihood of not having Cushings syndrome although some clinical/biochemical features of hypercortisolism are present. We have shown that the percentage of false positives varies according to applied cutoffs, from 80% with the 1.8-µg/dl threshold for cortisol at midnight to 3% with the 5-µg/dl cutoff after OST. In these patients, the clinician can either proceed with further, second-line testing, such as the dexamethasone-suppressed CRH test or desmopressin stimulation (12) or adrenal imaging looking for adrenal incidentalomas, a frequent cause of borderline test results (38), or else proceed more cautiously and maintain vigilant follow-up. Further studies will hopefully clarify which approach is best.
In conclusion, the choice between tests and thresholds capable of identifying all patients with Cushings syndrome without including unaffected subjects requires a careful balancing act. In this large series of Cushings syndrome suspects, UFC and cortisol suppression after 1 mg dexamethasone achieved satisfactory specificity. Conversely, serum cortisol concentrations at midnight should be interpreted with caution, especially with the 1.8-µg/dl cutoff. Furthermore, the influence of age and sex on specificity of screening tests, especially for males or middle-aged subjects, should enter the clinical judgment. These findings carry significant clinical implications for exclusion of Cushings syndrome by screening tests in the increasing population of obese, depressed, hypertensive, and diabetic patients.
| Footnotes |
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First Published Online August 14, 2007
Abbreviations: BMI, Body mass index; CI, confidence interval(s); NS, nonsignificant; OST, overnight suppression test; UFC, urinary free cortisol.
Received March 15, 2007.
Accepted August 6, 2007.
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