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Endocrine Care |
Departments of Medicine (F.S.F., N.H., F.A., G.M.R.), Stanford University, School of Medicine Stanford, California 94305; and San Francisco General Hospital (F.S.F.), University of CaliforniaSan Francisco, San Francisco, California 94110
Address all correspondence and requests for reprints to: G. M. Reaven, M.D., 213 East Grand Avenue, South San Francisco, California 94080. E-mail: greaven{at}shaman.com
Abstract
The current study was initiated to evaluate the ability of insulin resistance to predict a variety of age-related diseases. Baseline measurements of insulin resistance and related variables were made between 19881995 in 208 apparently healthy, nonobese (body mass index < 30 kg/m2) individuals, who were then evaluated 411 yr later (mean ± SEM = 6.3 ± 0.2 yr) for the appearance of the following age-related diseases: hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and type 2 diabetes. The effect of insulin resistance on the development of clinical events was evaluated by dividing the study group into tertiles of insulin resistance at baseline and comparing the events in these 3 groups. Clinical endpoints (n = 40) were identified in 37 individuals (18%) of those evaluated, including 12 with hypertension, 3 with hypertension + type 2 diabetes, 9 with cancer, 7 with coronary heart disease, 4 with stroke, and 2 with type 2 diabetes. Twenty-eight out of the total 40 clinical events were seen in 25 individuals (36%) in the most insulin-resistant tertile, with the other 12 occurring in the group with an intermediate degree of insulin resistance. Furthermore, insulin resistance was an independent predictor of all clinical events, using both multiple logistic regression and Coxs proportional hazards analysis. The fact that an age-related clinical event developed in approximately 1 out of 3 healthy individuals in the upper tertile of insulin resistance at baseline, followed for an average of 6 yr, whereas no clinical events were observed in the most insulin-sensitive tertile, should serve as a strong stimulus to further efforts to define the role of insulin resistance in the genesis of age-related diseases.
WE HAVE RECENTLY shown (1), in a prospective study, that resistance to insulin-mediated glucose disposal predicted cardiovascular morbidity in a group of 147 healthy volunteers, with an average age of 50 yr at baseline, followed for 4.7 yr. The focus of the initial study was on cardiovascular disease, in light of the many observations linking insulin resistance and/or its manifestations to this clinical endpoint (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9). The current study was initiated to extend our earlier observations, expanded to include a total of 208 individuals evaluated between 19881995, and the clinical endpoints enlarged to include type 2 diabetes and cancer as additional outcome events to be evaluated. Although evidence from human and animal studies has led to the suggestion that insulin resistance, or hyperinsulinemia, may play a role in the development of cancer (10, 11, 12, 13), we are not aware of any prospective studies that have examined this view. The results to be presented are based upon study of 208 individuals, with no apparent disease at baseline, evaluated 411 yr after their initial assessment of degree of insulin resistance.
Materials and Methods
To select apparently healthy individuals for this prospective study, the population to be evaluated was limited to volunteers recruited during the period from 19881995, who met the following criteria: more than 30 yr of age; body mass index (BMI) less than 30 kg/m2; no history of hypertension (HT), and blood pressure less than 145/90 mm Hg, normal physical examination and routine clinical chemistries, and a normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (14).
Measurements at baseline included weight, height, sitting blood pressure, and fasting lipid and lipoprotein concentrations (1). In addition, level of habitual physical activity was assessed by questionnaire based on reporting the number of activities per week that resulted in sweating (15).
Evaluation of glucose and insulin metabolism at baseline included a standard 75-g OGTT, with blood samples for measurement of plasma glucose and insulin concentration obtained before, and 30, 60, 120, and 180 min after the oral glucose load. The area under the curve was calculated by the trapezoidal formula to estimate the postload glucose and insulin areas (1). Insulin resistance was measured at baseline by the insulin suppression test as in our earlier study. Briefly, subjects were continuously infused for 180 min with somatostatin (250 µg/h), insulin (25 mU/m2·min), and glucose (240 mg/m2·min). Blood was drawn for measurement of plasma glucose and insulin concentrations every 10 min during the last 30 min of the infusion, and the average of these four values (150, 160, 170, 180 min) was used to define the steady-state plasma glucose (SSPG) and steady-state plasma insulin concentrations. Plasma glucose and insulin concentrations reached a plateau by 120 min, and the steady-state plasma insulin concentrations were essentially identical in all individuals. Therefore, the SSPG concentrations provide an estimate of how effective the same amount of insulin is in mediating disposal of the infused glucose load; the higher the SSPG, the more insulin resistant the individual. Insulin resistance determined with this method correlates almost perfectly (r > 0.9) with values obtained by the insulin clamp technique (16).
Follow-up evaluation was performed 411 yr after the baseline studies, with a mean (±SEM) duration of 6.3 ± 0.2 yr. All subjects were asked about their current status of health; medication usage; whether or not they had developed cancer, diabetes, or high blood pressure; and to complete the Rose questionnaire on chest pain (17). All positive reportings were verified by examination of the medical record, with the cooperation of the primary care physician in each instance, and included tissue evidence in the case of a diagnosis of cancer. For those who could not be contacted, it was assumed that either they had moved away or died. The names of these individuals were submitted to the Office of State Registrar in California for search against the death registry.
The study endpoints were the development of HT, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes, or cancer. HT was defined as the use of antihypertensive medication; CHD included chest pain with positive stress test, coronary angiography (with or without revascularization), coronary bypass surgery, or documented myocardial infarction; stroke included documented clinical neurological deficit lasting over 24 h, with or without confirmatory neuroimaging [cerebrovascular accident (CVA)]; diabetes (type 2) was assumed to be present in subjects treated with at least one oral hypoglycemic agent; and cancer was defined by history of specific treatment (radio-, chemo-, or palliative therapy or a combination of the above), and tissue diagnosis.
Results are expressed as mean ± SEM, and statistical significance was evaluated by ANOVA and contingency table, as appropriate. Nonparametric variables: triglycerides (TG), postload insulin area, and SSPG concentration were log-transformed before analysis. Univariate, multivariate, and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the relationships and interactions of baseline variables, with age-related diseases considered as categorical outcome variable(s). The proportional hazards model (Cox regression) was also used to evaluate relationships among study variables and clinical outcomes in a time-independent manner. All the calculations were performed with a commercial statistical software (Statistica, Statsoft Inc., Tulsa, OK) for the MacIntosh computer (mod. iBook, Apple Computers, Cupertino, CA).
Results
During the period of 19881995, 290 healthy volunteers met all of the criteria for inclusion into this study, and we were able to obtain follow-up data on 208 (98 males, 110 females) of these individuals (72%). Baseline demographic characteristics of those available for evaluation were quite similar to those individuals lost to follow-up (age, 50 vs. 48 yr; BMI, approximately 24.7 vs. 24.5 kg/m2).
Clinical endpoints (n = 40) were identified in 37 individuals of those evaluated, including 12 with HT, 9 with cancer, 7 with CHD, and 5 with type 2 diabetes, 3 of which also had high blood pressure, and 4 with stroke. The cancers were distributed as follows: 3 prostate, 2 gastric, 1 breast, 1 colon, 1 bladder, and 1 renal. There were six deaths reported: 2 cardiovascular, 3 cancer related, and 1 due to infection. Search through the State of California Death Registry was negative for those individuals lost to follow-up. It should be emphasized that the period of observation after baseline was 6.2 ± 0.2 yr, 6.3 ± 0.2 yr, and 6.5 ± 0.2 yr in tertile 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
The 208 subjects were divided into tertiles on the basis of their SSPG
concentrations. The baseline clinical characteristics of the 3 groups
are given in Table 1
. Subjects in the
highest SSPG tertile were older and had a higher BMI, diastolic blood
pressure, plasma TG, total cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein
(LDL) cholesterol concentrations. In addition, high-density lipoprotein
(HDL) cholesterol concentrations were lower, and these individuals were
less physically active. The male-to-female ratios were similar in each
tertile (31/38, 34/35, and 33/37, respectively, for the low, mid, and
top tertile), as well as the number of smokers (
10%).
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This study was initiated to evaluate the hypothesis that insulin resistance would predict the development, over time, of clinical syndrome that might be best subsumed under the heading of age-related diseases (HT, CHD, stroke, cancer, and type 2 diabetes). Although the results provide substantial support for this point of view, perhaps the most striking finding was that none of these events were seen in the third of the population that was most insulin-sensitive. Given the fact that the period of observation ranged from 411 yr, with an average follow-up of 6.3 yr, the fact that not one clinical event took place in the insulin-sensitive tertile seems to be truly remarkable. If the ability of insulin sensitivity to decrease risk of developing age-related diseases can be confirmed in subsequent studies, the public health implications are enormous. For example, it has been shown (18) that approximately 50% of the variability in insulin-mediated glucose disposal between apparently healthy individuals is related to life-style (25% to differences in weight and 25% to differences in level of habitual physical activity). As a corollary, the ability of life-style interventions to improve insulin sensitivity and to reduce risk of age-related diseases is self-evident. If 50% of the variability in insulin-mediated glucose disposal is related to life-style, it is likely that the remaining 50% is attributable to genetic differences. In support of this view is evidence that this variable is certainly familial (19). Thus, recognition of families sharing insulin resistance would permit an even more intensive attempt at life-style intervention to improve insulin sensitivity.
The observation that development of type 2 diabetes, HT, and cardiovascular disease was more common in the most insulin-resistant tertile is not surprising. The presence of insulin resistance has been well recognized for approximately 25 yr (20, 21), and insulin resistance and/or compensatory hyperinsulinemia have been shown to predict type 2 diabetes in several prospective studies (22, 23, 24, 25). Similarly, the existence of insulin resistance and/or compensatory hyperinsulinemia in patients with essential HT has been extensively documented (26), and hyperinsulinemia as a surrogate measure of insulin resistance has also been shown to be an independent predictor of essential HT (27, 28, 29, 30). There is also considerable evidence that insulin resistance and/or hyperinsulinemia predict the development of cardiovascular disease (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), but controversy continues as to the validity of this association (31, 32).
In contrast to the association between insulin resistance and the
clinical syndromes discussed above, the possibility that abnormalities
of insulin metabolism might be linked to the risk of cancer has
received much less attention. However, the fact that its prevalence
increases with age, and the existence of published reports suggesting
that hyperinsulinemia might increase cancer risk (10, 11, 12, 13),
led to its inclusion in this study as one of the endpoints to be
evaluated. The results showed that cancer was diagnosed in nine
subjects over an average period of 6 yr. Not surprisingly, the subjects
who developed cancer were somewhat older at baseline (61 ± 2 yr),
compared with those who had either a noncancer (53 ± 2 yr) or no
(50 ± 1 yr) events, but the three groups were similar in terms of
period of observation, BMI, or history of smoking. Furthermore, the
relationship between insulin resistance and cancer defined in Table 4
was present, when age-adjusted, and the results of the Cox proportional
hazard analysis in Table 5
also document a statistically significant
and independent relationship between insulin resistance and cancer.
However, it should be emphasized that the cases of cancer were confined
to the upper two tertiles, and a wide variety of different cancers were
observed. Thus, in the case of cancer, it could be argued that the more
appropriate conclusion is that insulin sensitivity decreases cancer
risk, rather than insulin resistance increasing it. The fact that we
cannot differentiate between these two alternatives at this time does
not negate the potential importance of our findings nor the need to
pursue this issue more vigorously.
Although the experimental findings we have presented are relatively straight-forward, we can only speculate as to why a variety of age-related diseases might be linked to insulin resistance and/or hyperinsulinemia. In this context, it is worth noting that caloric restriction, in both invertebrates and mammals, leads to a decrease in age-related morbidities and enhanced life span, associated with enhanced insulin sensitivity, and lower glucose and insulin concentrations (33, 34, 35, 36, 37). An age-related decline in insulin sensitivity in rats allowed free access to food would result in an elevation in ambient glucose concentrations, which could lead to higher rates of protein glycation and glycoxidation, with production of carbonyls, advanced glycation end-products, and protein cross-linking (38, 39, 40, 41, 42). Such products of carbohydrate and protein modification can initiate lipid peroxidation (43), with production of genotoxic, atherogenic, and diabetogenic aldehydes (44, 45, 46, 47, 48). It should be noted that other explanations have been proposed to account for the observation that caloric restriction can prolong life span. For example, in a recent review article, it was suggested that the benefit of caloric restriction on life span is attributable to the associated reduced fat mass, and a consequent decrease in the secretion of various peptides, cytokines, couplement factors, and substrate (49). Finally, evidence has also recently been summarized implicating an increase in levels of IGF-1 as playing a role as a risk factor for several forms of cancer (50), and this offers another possible mechanistic link between insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia and cancer. Whether any of these possibilities have relevance to our results is clearly conjectural, but they may serve to provide some framework with which to pursue future studies of the association between insulin resistance and age-related diseases.
In conclusion, an age-related disease developed in approximately one out of three healthy individuals who were in the upper tertile of insulin resistance at baseline, followed for an average of 6 yr. In contrast, no clinical event was seen in the most insulin-sensitive tertile. These data should serve as a strong stimulus for further efforts to define the role of insulin resistance in the genesis of age-related diseases.
Footnotes
This work was supported by Research Grants HL-08506 and RR-0007 from the NIH.
Abbreviations: BMI, Body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; HT, hypertension; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; SSPG, steady-state plasma glucose; OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test; TG, triglycerides.
Received July 12, 2000.
Accepted April 4, 2001.
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