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Section of Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research (A.J.S., C.D.H.), Sutton, Surrey SM2 5NG; Departments of Endocrinology (R.E.R., S.M.S.) and Medical Statistics (W.D.J.R.), Christie Hospital, Manchester, London; Centre of Paediatric Endocrinology and Metabolism, Middlesex Hospital (H.A.S., C.G.D.B., P.C.H.), London; Department of Neurosurgery, Great Ormond Street Hospital (K.P., R.D.H.), London; and Academic Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, Royal Marsden Hospital National Health Service Trust (M.B.), Sutton, Surrey, United Kingdom
Address all correspondence and requests for reprints to: Prof. A. J. Swerdlow, Institute of Cancer Research, Section of Epidemiology, D Block, Cotswold Road, Sutton, Surrey, United Kingdom SM2 5NG.
| Abstract |
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| Introduction |
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Brain tumor recurrence is a frequent cause of death in patients treated with GH (17, 18), but there is very limited information on whether recurrence rates are greater after this treatment than in comparable untreated patients. Three relatively small studies have been reported (19, 20, 21, 22), only one of which made allowance for confounding factors (22). Recurrence rates were not found to be increased in treated subjects (22), but confidence intervals (CIs) were wide and follow-up short, so that considerable uncertainty remains. The present study combined longer follow-up from the three largest treatment centers in the United Kingdom to give a much larger analysis, with greater power, on the risks of tumor recurrence in relation to GH replacement therapy.
| Subjects and Methods |
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Person-time at risk of recurrence of malignancy in GH-treated patients was calculated from the date of first GH treatment to the date of last clinical contact, first tumor recurrence, or death, whichever occurred first. This person-time was calculated separately by category of sex (i.e. separately for males and females), age at tumor diagnosis, histology, calendar period when the tumor was diagnosed, time since diagnosis, whether the patient received chemotherapy, and hospital of treatment. Person-time in patients not treated with GH was calculated similarly, starting from the date of first treatment for brain tumor (or at the Christie Hospital, the second anniversary of this), and including within the untreated category the experience before first GH treatment of children who subsequently received GH.
The relapse rate among GH-treated patients was compared with that among
untreated patients using Cox regression analysis (23),
adjusting for the confounding variables detailed in the tables, with GH
treatment as a time-dependent variable. In particular, it should be
noted that this analysis allowed for the change in recurrence risk with
time since tumor occurrence, and hence allowed for the tendency for
follow-up of GH-treated subjects compared with untreated patients to be
in years longer after the tumor occurred, when recurrence risks are
comparatively low. Ninety-five percent CIs for the hazard ratios
[relative risks (RRs)] were obtained assuming a normal distribution.
Assessments of heterogeneity in RRs and trends in risk were conducted
using the likelihood ratio test (24). As well as analyzing
risks of relapse, we repeated the analyses using death instead of
relapse as the outcome under analysis. For analysis of risk in relation
to time since tumor diagnosis, the Cox model does not directly provide
an estimate of the baseline relapse rate over time, and therefore to
provide the analysis shown in Table 2
, a Poisson rather than a Cox
model was used, as it produces very similar RR estimates to the Cox
model and, in addition, a simple estimate of the baseline rate.
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| Results |
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Risk of relapse was significantly reduced in GH-treated patients
compared with untreated patients before adjustment for prognostic
variables (RR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.40.9; not in table) and after
adjustment (RR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.40.9; Table 3
). We examined the RR of relapse in
GH-treated compared with nontreated patients in different prognostic
subgroups; for instance, divided by age at diagnosis or by histology of
brain tumor (Table 3
). In no subgroup was there a significantly raised
risk of relapse in relation to GH and in no instance was there
significant heterogeneity between prognostic subgroups in the relation
of GH to risk of relapse.
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| Discussion |
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There are several reasons for concern that GH might increase the risk of cancer recurrence or incidence. The hormone is mitogenic. In animal experiments it increases the incidence of leukemia (9) and solid tumors (8, 11), and in vitro it can promote replication of leukemic blast cells from human marrow (10). Increased chromosome fragility has been found in lymphocytes of treated children (25), and there have been over 40 case reports of leukemia occurring during or after treatment (13). An increased risk of leukemia has been shown in a cohort study in the U.S. of GH-treated patients (14), although many of the cohort members had other risk factors for malignancy. In Japanese and U.S. cohorts of GH recipients without such risk factors there was no apparent increased risk of leukemia (26, 27), and in the U.S. there was no increased risk of extracranial nonleukemic neoplasms overall, although risks were not analyzed by cancer site (28). Evidence that the GH/insulin-like growth factor I axis may be important in cancer etiology in man has come from recent reports of a strong positive association between insulin-like growth factor I levels and the risk of certain malignancies subsequently (15, 16).
In follow-up of GH-treated patients, brain tumor recurrence has been one of the most common causes of death (17, 18), but without data on comparable patients who did not receive GH, it is unclear whether this indicates a raised risk. Similarly, reports of recurrence rates in GH-treated patients without comparison data on similar, but untreated, patients (29, 30, 31) are difficult to interpret. Assessment of whether recurrence rates are affected by GH treatment requires comparison of recurrence rates in GH-treated and untreated subjects from the same centers; three studies have made such a comparison (19, 20, 22). Two of these made no allowance for likely differences between the two groups in confounding factors, such as duration of follow-up (19, 20), which, again, makes interpretation unclear. The one study that allowed for confounding variables (22) found no raised risk of recurrence in relation to treatment, but small numbers of subjects and relatively short follow-up left considerable uncertainty. The present analysis, which included almost 4 times as many GH-treated subjects, did not find increased risk associated with GH treatment, and the CI of the overall finding excluded substantial risk.
Several potential biases in the study require consideration. The most important is that patients may have been selected for GH treatment on grounds associated with good prognosis. Adjustment for major known prognostic variables did not reveal increased recurrence rates in GH-treated patients, however, and indeed, this adjustment caused the RRs to decrease. If the low RRs in the treated patients were due to residual confounding by unmeasured or unknown prognostic variables, then these risks would be expected to rise to unity with longer follow-up, as the initial selection wore off. This was the pattern seen for both recurrences and deaths, and it is notable that the RRs for the longest follow-up period did not increase appreciably above unity. Thus, although it is impossible to be certain that confounding by unknown prognostic factors has not disguised an increased risk from GH therapy, the evidence does not suggest that this is so.
Bias might also potentially have occurred if there had been incomplete ascertainment of recurrences, and this had differed between the GH-treated and untreated patients. This is extremely unlikely, however, because all clinical or radiological recurrences would have been dealt with by the primary treatment centers, and although more intensive surveillance might have accelerated diagnosis of recurrences by a few weeks or months, it would not have revealed lesions that would otherwise have been undiscovered. Furthermore, the mortality results, to which such potential biases would not apply, were similar to those for recurrences.
A final potential source of bias was the use of the date of last clinical contact as the date of exit from risk for patients who had not died or relapsed. This was unavoidable because it would have been infeasible to update follow-up individually by personal contact for the entire cohort. The use of this end date gave potential for bias, because routine follow-up tended to occur more frequently for GH-treated than for untreated patients, and thus their date of last clinical contact tended to be more recent. The person-years since last contact are likely to have been virtually free of recurrences or deaths, because these events would have brought the patient to clinical attention. Thus, loss from the study of relapse-free person-years would tend to increase apparent relapse rates, and if this occurred more for untreated than treated patients, it would lead to underestimation of the RRs in treated patients. We found, however, that when the analysis was repeated with follow-up until the end of the study unless patients were known to have died or relapsed (i.e. probably overcompensating for any bias), there were still no substantially increased risks in relation to GH treatment.
If there were an effect of GH on tumor recurrence, it is unknown how soon it would occur after exposure, and how it would relate to the extent of exposure; with regard to the latter, although the dosage of GH has been fairly standard, the cumulative duration for which treatment has been given has varied greatly between patients. We therefore analyzed risks in relation to time since first treatment and cumulative duration of treatment. The latter showed no relation to risk, and although the former showed a rising trend with time, this started from a RR below unity and did not rise significantly above it, so it may have been due to the wearing off of initial selective effects, as discussed above.
In summary, the results provide evidence, based on far more person-years of treatment and follow-up than previously, that recurrence rates of brain tumor are not substantially increased after GH replacement therapy. The data for the period 5 and more yr after first treatment leave a need for further surveillance, however, both because the CIs for risks in this period were wider, and because the significant rising trend in mortality RRs in the GH-treated subjects, although not in itself a cause for alarm at present, leaves open the possibility of an increased risk. In addition, the possibility that GH treatment may affect de novo cancer incidence, particularly when used in larger than replacement doses, needs to be clarified in much larger cohort studies.
| Acknowledgments |
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| Footnotes |
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Received June 20, 2000.
Revised August 29, 2000.
Accepted September 6, 2000.
| References |
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